How to Think About Web3
Web3 today looks similar to the IBM Clone wars of the 1990s. Ethereum, Solana, and other Web3 platforms all look to provide platform abilities, but eventually will move towards interpretability
How to Think About Web3
The Web3 landscape resembles nothing so much as the desktop computer wars of the early 1990s - a moment when multiple platforms competed for dominance while the ultimate winner remained unclear. Understanding this parallel offers crucial insight into where we stand today and what might emerge tomorrow.
The Current Battlefield
Ethereum plays the role of IBM - the established heavyweight that set the standard for smart contracts and decentralized applications. With over $509 billion in market cap and 10 years of proven uptime, it commands the ecosystem much like IBM once dominated computing. But just as IBM faced challengers, Ethereum now confronts a host of competitors positioning themselves as faster, cheaper alternatives.
Solana, Cardano, Polkadot, and others are the IBM clones - platforms offering similar functionality but with promises of better performance, lower costs, or enhanced features. Solana processes 65,000 transactions per second versus Ethereum's 15. Polygon offers EVM compatibility with sub-penny fees. Each platform markets aggressively against the others' weaknesses.
The Infrastructure Reality
Here's what many miss: Web3 still fundamentally depends on Web2 infrastructure. AWS hosts Ethereum nodes. Traditional servers power decentralized applications. This symbiotic relationship mirrors how early personal computers needed established infrastructure to function - electricity grids, telecommunications networks, manufacturing supply chains.
Web3 represents a network of websites, platforms, and social media accounts authenticated by crypto wallets, creating a tech-forward environment that sits atop, rather than replaces, existing digital infrastructure.
The Missing Microsoft
In the 1990s computing wars, Microsoft emerged not by building the best hardware, but by creating the standardizing software layer that enabled interoperability across different machines. What represents the Microsoft of Web3 remains an open question.
The winner likely won't be another blockchain platform competing on speed or fees. Instead, look for the infrastructure that enables all blockchains to function effectively in the real world - the layer that solves interoperability, connects digital assets to physical reality, or creates the standardized protocols that make Web3 truly usable.
The Trust Arbitrage
Web3's core economic driver is higher perceived trust levels in the crypto digital experience. Legacy Web2 platforms have suffered an erosion of user trust that potentially outweighs their economic advantages. This creates opportunities for Web3 platforms that can deliver on promises of transparency, user ownership, and decentralized governance.
But trust must be earned through reliability. Ethereum's 99.95% uptime over a decade matters more than theoretical transaction speeds. Network outages and bridge hacks remind us that the map is not the territory - blockchain records are only as valuable as the systems that maintain them.
What to Watch
The pattern from previous technology cycles suggests massive initial speculation followed by consolidation around the most useful platforms. We saw this with automobiles (300+ companies became three major manufacturers), dot-com companies (thousands became Google, Amazon, PayPal), and we'll see it again with blockchains.
The survivors will be platforms that solve real problems rather than just offering incremental improvements. They'll integrate with existing systems rather than trying to replace everything. And they'll focus on sustainable economics rather than unsustainable token incentives.
The Web3 moment we're living through isn't just about which blockchain wins - it's about identifying the infrastructure layers that will enable the entire ecosystem to mature. That's where the real Microsoft of Web3 likely emerges.